LDC Trade recovery in 2009
Volume is up, but earnings are down. The world’s least developed
countries (LDCs) are experiencing a nascent recovery from the global financial
crisis, with a slight increase in volume. At the same time, exporters
find themselves earning less, according to the findings of ITC’s latest Trade
Map Factsheet. To download LDC Trade Recovery in 2009, click
here .
It is apparent that the decline in
exports from LDCs, which began late in the second quarter of 2008, ended in the
first quarter of 2009. The ITC Trade Map Factsheet finds, however, the impact
is still being felt through lower export earnings. And while LDCs
increased their overall volume of exports, the earnings were reduced, leading
to the conclusion that more exports are earning less.
The Trade Map factsheet analyzes
that recovery, in both value and volume terms, and related explanatory
variables.
The document provides an overview of
the extent of decline, based on ITC Trade Map data and confirmed by other,
independent research efforts, as well as an overview of the extent of recovery
to date. It also details trade performance in 2009 at a disaggregated level,
focusing on the most important product groups and trade partners. And it explores
potential explanations for varying levels of export performance during the
decline and recovery.
Major items covered include:
Disaggregated Trade Impacts
Findings include that within the
group of reporting countries, the EU, the USA and China constitute the largest
importers of products, both oil or non-oil related, from LDCs. Among key
sectors, in value terms, apparel, mineral fuels, ores, copper and fish make up
67% of non-crude oil exports from LDCs.
Potential Determinants of Crisis
Impacts
The analysis shows that WTO
membership makes a positive difference. LDCs with membership in the WTO showed
the strongest export performance.
Diversification
It’s proven that more diversified exporters are expected to perform better than more concentrated exporters. A country’s level of
product and market diversification is a possible determinant in trade performance.