WTO sees 9% global trade decline in 2009*

The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9% in volume terms1 in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War, WTO economists forecast today. The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10% this year. In developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2%-3% in 2009, WTO economists say.

“For the last 30 years trade has been an ever increasing part of economic activity, with trade growth often outpacing gains in output. Production for many products is sourced around the world so there is a multiplier effect — as demand falls sharply overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds available for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade flows, in particular in developing countries,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy.

A notable aspect of the current slowdown in world trade is its synchronized nature. Monthly exports and imports of major developed and developing economies have been falling in unison since September 2008. With the growing share of developing countries’ trade in the global total, and increased geographical diversification of these flows, it was assumed by some commentators that a “decoupling” effect would have made developing countries less vulnerable to economic turmoil in developed countries. This has not turned out to be the case.

Trade prospects for 2009

Trade prospects for 2009 are heavily conditioned by the financial crisis that began almost two years ago in the United States. The crisis intensified dramatically following the collapse of the Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers in September of last year, and the government-led rescue of a number of financial institutions in the United States and elsewhere. Turmoil in the financial sector and acute credit shortages spread inexorably to the real sector. Declining asset prices, faltering demand and falling production translated into dramatically reduced and in some cases negative production and trade growth in many countries. Trade has also been affected adversely by a sharp shrinkage in credit to finance imports and exports.

Since the recession began to take hold in the fourth quarter of 2008 there has been little cause for optimism in the outlook for trade in 2009. The financial crisis has disrupted the normal functioning of the banking system and deprived firms and individuals of much-needed credit. Falling stock markets and housing prices have also administered negative shocks to wealth in the United States and elsewhere, making households unwilling to purchase durable goods such as automobiles while they attempt to rebuild their savings. Falling commodity prices, while a boon to consumers in importing countries, have also deprived oil-producing countries of export revenues.

Not even China, with its dynamic economy, can insulate itself from global downturn when most of its main trading partners are in recession. China’s exports to its top six trading partners (treating the EU as a single partner) represented 70% of the country’s total exports in 2007. All of these trading partners are currently experiencing economic contraction or slowdown and are likely to exhibit weak import demand for some time.

Reasons for trade contraction

Trade growth data show declines that are larger than in past slow-downs. A number of factors may explain this.

One is that the fall-off in demand is more widespread than in the past, as all regions of the world economy are slowing at once.

A second reason for the magnitude of recent declines relates to the increasing presence of global supply chains in total trade. Trade contraction or expansion is no longer simply a question of changes in trade flows between a producing country and a consuming country — goods cross many frontiers during the production process and components in the final product are counted every time they cross a frontier. The only way of avoiding this effect — whose aggregate magnitude can only be guessed at on account of the absence of systematic information — would be to measure trade transactions on the basis of the value added at each stage of the production process. Since value-added, or the return to factors of production, is the real measure of income in the economy, and trade is a gross flow rather than a measure of income, it follows from the reasoning above that strong increases or decreases in trade flow numbers should not be interpreted as an accurate guide to what is actually happening to incomes and employment.

A third element in current conditions that is likely to contribute to the contraction of trade is a shortage of trade finance. This has clearly been a problem and it is receiving particular attention from international institutions and governments. The WTO has been playing a role as honest broker by bringing together the key players to work on ensuring the availability and affordability of trade finance.

A fourth factor that could contribute to trade contraction is protection. Any rises in protection will threaten the prospects for recovery and prolong the downturn. The risk of aggravated protectionism is rightly a source of concern going forward¹.

¹Two factors that might accentuate the extent of year-on-year declines in monthly data in value terms are the higher commodity prices that prevailed a year ago and increases in the value of the US dollar compared to most other currencies. The WTO estimate of export growth in 2009 is not, however, influenced by these considerations because it is calculated in real rather than nominal terms.